Global Market (July 2022)


The index of Chinese purchasing managers in June due to the reduction of quarantine restrictions in important cities of this country and the expansionary policies of the Chinese government reached above 50, which shows the exit of businesses from recession.

Also the assessment of economic activists indicates the return of prosperity to businesses related to the non-factory production sector and the service is in China. But the global increase in factory production was accompanied by a decline, the main reason for which was an increase inflationary pressures and continued global supply chain disruptions.

The price of Brent oil decreased a bit last week, the main reason for which was the increase in interest rates by the Central Bank Europe since July, which has increased the possibility of economic recession and reduced oil demand in Europe.

The United States as well as the talk that Jerome PCE due to the increase in the index of personal consumption expenditures Powell has had the commitment of the Federal Reserve to control inflation, it is expected that the monetary policy of the United States.

The United States of America should intensify contractionary policy to control consumer inflation. The US stock market also with paying attention to the increase in the index of personal consumption expenses and the possibility of intensifying the contractionary policy to control inflation with falling was with us. The stock market of European countries was affected by the publication of the inflation rate, which was more than the market forecasts.

Also, the reduction of the unemployment rate in this region, along with the decision of the Central Bank of the Eurozone to adopt a contractionary policy there were drops.

Metal prices were expected to increase last week due to the improvement of the China Purchasing Managers’ Index, but otherwise from aluminum, the rest of the metals went down, while zinc experienced the biggest drop, which is the main factor.

It was the negative perspective of demand from the US and the Eurozone, which caused it to decrease by 11%.

Changes in the prices of agricultural products, especially grains, last week were affected by the forecast report of the cultivation area.

It was the United States Department of Agriculture. The results of the mentioned report increase the prospects of soybean supply and decrease the price.

Soybean and soybean oil futures contracts also had an opposite effect on sugar prices.

An increase in the annual inflation rate of the Eurozone over the forecast of the central banks of this region, along with a decrease in the unemployment rate.

In May, the central bank of the Eurozone will lead the policymakers to tighten the contractionary policy to curb inflation.

On the other hand, looking at the long-term trend of the growth rate of liquidity in the Eurozone.

This variable was slightly different in the 2008 financial crisis and the Corona crisis (due to the energy crisis caused by the Russian embargo).

It is very similar. If Europe finds a suitable alternative for Russian gas and oil and the global price of oil decreases.

Found, the increase in the intensity of contractionary policies of the European Central Bank is very likely. This topic is on demand.

Global commodities will also have a negative impact.

Regarding the economic sentiment index of the Eurozone, the expectations of economic activists based on the contractionary policy of the bank.

The center of this region has had a negative impact on consumption and construction.

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